NHL teams “not suffering a shutout” down to SIX (one of them you won’t believe!)

“. . .and then there were SIX.” With the blanking of Tampa Bay last night, there are now only six NHL teams left that have managed to spare themselves the indignity of being shut out. And there are some surprises among the “surviving six.”

But before getting to the surprises, let’s take a quick look at the “no surprise” category. First, there are the Penguins. With Sidney Crosby tearing up the league, and dragging Chris Kunitz to a breakout year, the Pens lead the league in scoring by a wide margin (14 goals more than the next highest team). Among the 30 teams, they are the most likely not to have been shut out, and they indeed have not been. In fact, they have scored two or more goals in all but 4 of their 28 games.

Also in “no surprise” territory, are the Blackhawks. After all, each of those 24 straight games of gaining at least one point had to involve their scoring at least one goal. Further, they’ve only had three games since the streak ended, and though they’ve lost two of them, they didn’t come close to getting shut out in either.

Then there’s the Bruins, right near the top of the eastern conference all season. Certainly not the offensive juggernaut the Pens are, but with a conference low in losses (only four), they are the next least likely candidate to have been shut out.

Now to the other side of the ledger: the “surprises”. First, there are the Canucks. It seems a day doesn’t go by without some member of Canuck Nation cryin’ the blues about their inability to score, especially on the power play. So it must come as a surprise to find that the Canucks have survive to the final six in refusing to succumb to a blanking. And with their 7-4 shellacking of Nashville, they have actually climbed into the top half of the league in goals for, and they have been limited to a single goal only three times (and one of those games, they even won).

The other two teams in this category are bigger surprises, for both have for years had the reputation of being among the most offensively challenged teams in the league. One is New Jersey. To give you an idea of their troubles, their fourth highest scorer, Adam Henrique, has only 13 points. However, the trio of Elias, Kovalchuk and Clarkson have been prolific enough to keep the Devils on the score sheet every game this season.

The other offensively challenged team is the Minnesota Wild. It was thought that the acquisition of a sniper like Zach Parise might help them shed their “no finish” reputation, but he has managed to get points in only a little over half of their 26 games so far, and the Wild have accumulated only 64 goals, just two more than the league low of 62. But still, they have been able to escape the dreaded goose-egg, though they have come close. . .scoring just a single goal eight times (nearly a third of all their games!). In terms of “staying alive” in the game of avoiding being shut out, Minnesota is truly the big surprise.

Crosby NOT “Most Efficient Scorer” in NHL . . .but who is?

You can consult any number of websites to see that Sidney Crosby is the leading scorer in the NHL with 39 points here at the halfway point of this truncated season. But. . .has he been the most efficient scorer through the first half? Going beyond just raw “points” to “points per game” reveals he also tops the league in that category as well, as shown in this chart (columns: games / points / points per game):

1  Crosby         24     39      1.625            6  Ribeiro    22     28      1.273
2  Stamkos     24     35       1.458            7  Getzlaf     22     27      1.227
3  Vanek          22     29       1.318            8  E. Staal    23     28      1.217
4  Kunitz         24     31       1.292            9  Voracek   25     29      1.160
5  St. Louis     24     31       1.292          10  Malkin     20     23      1.150

Here, Thomas Vanek is 3rd in scoring efficiency while only 5th in the scoring race. Even more dramatic is Evgeni Malkin’s being 10th in scoring efficiency despite only being 19th in scoring. However, even this consideration of points per game does not provide the whole picture of scoring efficiency, because it does not take into consideration the key factor of “ice time”, for surely, a player who gets two points in 20 minutes of ice time is not being as efficient as a player to gets two points in only 10 minutes.

A more accurate gauge of scoring efficiency would be “points per 20 minutes of ice time” to even the playing field from player to player. The following chart sets out the league leaders in “points per 20min,” with a 10-game minimum, to eliminate anomalies like the Stars’ Colton Sceviour whose one assist in only 4:51 of ice time yields him a whopping 4.124 points per 20min (20min units / points / points per 20min unit):

1  Frattin        6.44    10      1.553         6  Vanek            21.47     29       1.351
2  Crosby     25.98    39      1.501         7  Stamkos       26.44    35       1.324
3  Kunitz      21.60    31      1.435         8  Kadri             19.13     25       1.307
4  Ribeiro    19.62    28      1.427         9  Pacioretty   15.80    20       1.266
5  Voracek   20.98   29      1.382       10 St. Louis       26.24   31        1.181

Seven of the players in the “points per game” chart also appear here, though Stamkos and St. Louis are each five spots lower. . .not surprising, given they rank second and third, respectively, in ice time among the top fifty forwards in the scoring race.

More noteworthy are the new names that draw in here. Max Pacioretty has just 20 points, but also, he only gets an average of 15:48 of ice time per game. Nazem Kadri has done even better, getting 25 points on only 15:18 per game. But the biggest surprise is Matt Frattin. Not making the Leafs’ roster out of training camp and then being  knocked out of the lineup with a knee injury once he was given a chance to play has kept his profile low. But he does have the distinction of being an even more efficient scorer than Crosby, amassing 10 points in 10 games on a mere 12:53 of ice time per game.

Chicago Blackhawks’ Streak: “not as spectacular as it appears”

Today, the Chicago Blackhawks stretched their “games to start a season without a regulation loss” record to 22. And while smashing the old record by 6 games (and counting) has led many to consider the Hawks as being in a league all their own this season, a closer look at the streak suggests otherwise.

As the streak has progressed, I’ve gotten the impression that on a lot of nights they were just barely squeaking by their opponents. And a check through their 19 wins confirmed my impression. Three of the wins were in shoot-outs and another three were in overtime. And of their 13 regulation-time wins, 7 of them had a mere one-goal margin of victory (including a 5-3 win involving an empty-net goal). That’s a lot of “squeaking by”!

Don’t get me wrong. . .what Chicago has accomplished is impressive. I just wouldn’t say they have been dominant enough to justify their planning a parade route just yet.

“Canucks blown out by Wings”: blame it on ‘Rosterjugglingitis’

It was pretty disheartening to see the Canucks get thrashed by the Red Wings the other day. And afterward, I heard a lot of talk about “end of a road trip” and “fourth game in six days”. But when I took a closer look at those four games, a different explanation emerged.

Last week, I wrote a post over at Nucks Misconduct making the case that the Canucks suffer from “rosterjugglingitis”–a malady involving a poor performance whenever a new player draws into the lineup–and that post suggested that the roster juggle (David Booth for Aaron Volpatti) for last week’s game against the Hawks may have been a contributing factor in the Canucks’ 4-3 shootout loss.

Continuing forward from there, the next game saw Volpatti draw back into the lineup to replace Jannik Hansen as he served his one-game suspension, and in the following game, Volpatti was back in the press box with Hansen’s return. This makes ‘player changes’ in three straight games, something the Canucks had managed to avoid all season. But fortunately, they were only playing the scoring-challenged Predators (who have been shut out nearly twice as many times as any other team), and managed an ugly 1-0 win.

Now, we come to the Detroit game, a fourth straight game involving ‘roster juggling’; that, by itself, basically guarantees a loss for the Canucks, despite the fact the Wings had played the night before, and had managed only one win in their last six games. But to make matters worse, the Canucks’ roster juggling involved multiple changes for the first time this season, with Kevin Bieksa down with an injury and Booth out with the flu, resulting in Volpatti and Andrew Alberts drawing into the lineup. For a team like the Canucks who suffer from rosterjugglingitis, this scenario represents a veritable “perfect storm”. . .and the Canucks did indeed get blown out of the rink.

PostMortem on Canucks-over-Hawks prediction: the “rosterjugglingitis” factor

Yes, a swing and a miss on my prediction on last night’s Canucks-Hawks tilt, but I didn’t miss by much! I’ve gone back over the data, and have discovered where I went wrong. My findings are set out in this post over at Nucks Misconduct.

“Canucks will beat Hawks tonight, but not in regulation time”. . .the stats don’t lie

I have noticed some patterns in the Canucks’ play this season, and a pattern in their wins and losses leads me to conclude they will beat the Hawks tonight, and the pattern even suggests the win will be either in a shoot-out or in overtime. For the details, see my post over at Nucks Misconduct.

Top ‘point streaks’ in NHL . . . with a surprise at # 2!

by GARY YAMASAKI   As we hit the four-week mark of this truncated NHL season, and look into who owns the longest point streak to this point, we find it is Eric Staal at 11 games (and counting). To find Staal at the top of the list is no big surprise. After all, he has had a streak as long as 15 games (in his 100-point season coming out of the last lockout), and he’s had a 12-gamer as recently as last season.

As for who’s in second spot, it’s not one of the troika of Sharks who were tearing up the league out of the gate; the point productions of all three of them have literally fallen off a cliff since the first six games. Patrick Kane is off to a great start–averaging a point-and-a-half per game–and would have a 14-game streak but for a Jan 27 encounter with the Wings. Thomas Vanek is the leading scorer in the league, but the 23 points in his first eleven games was interrupted by a single goose egg.

The second longest streak  belongs to an Edmonton Oiler, and not one who has “first overall draft choice” on his resume. Rather, it is Sam Gagner of “Kid Line” fame back in his early days with the Oilers. The 49 points of his rookie season did suggest promise, but he has not been able to surpass, or even match, that total in the subsequent four seasons, resulting in his fading into relative obscurity. . .which makes his 10-game streak this season so surprising.

It may have been the least noticed double-digit point streak in NHL history, not only because he is not a big-name player, but also, because there have been no flashy hat tricks or 3-point games in the streak; in fact, during the streak, Gagner was able to accumulate more than 1 point only once. But the good news for the Oilers is that Gagner has found a home alongside Taylor Hall and Nail Yakupov in what could be another “Kid Line” (though at 23, Gagner may be a bit long in the tooth to be considered a “kid” anymore).

Want to reduce concussions in the NHL? A modest proposal. . .

by GARY YAMASAKI   Given the intensity of play at the NHL level, it is obviously going to be impossible to eliminate concussions altogether. This is not to say that nothing can be done to stem the epidemic of concussions among NHL players, but the league has been moving at a glacial pace in instituting changes that have any hope of making a significant difference. Fortunately, there is one change that could almost instantly reduce the impact concussions are having on NHL players.

The change relates to the helmets the players wear, or more specifically, the protective liners in the helmets. A standard hockey helmet is fitted with a liner made of EPP (expanded polypropylene), and this dense foam does afford a significant degree of protection. However, the shock-absorbing capabilities of EPP are not adequate to protect the brain in cases of major impacts to the head. This is why we do not let our children simply wear hockey helmets when riding bikes. Bike helmets have protective liners made of EPS (expanded polystyrene). This is like a very dense styrofoam, and its superior shock-absorbing capabilities stem from its actually crushing upon the impact of a skull slamming against it as the helmet smashes into a hard surface.

So here is the modest proposal. Why don’t NHL players simply switch over to wearing helmets with EPS liners? They wouldn’t be able to do this immediately, as none are currently available. But for the right price, I’m sure helmet manufacturers will get right on it. Actually, it would only involve making modifications to existing helmet shells to accommodate a replaceable liner (an EPS liner would need to be replaced after any impact strong enough to cause it to crush) and arranging for the production of the liners themselves.

Obviously, having to replace these liners on a regular basis would not be cheap, but the cost would be a drop in the bucket in comparison to the health benefits enjoyed by the players.

Note to Gary Bettman: “when you make an apology you should MAKE AMENDS too”

by GARY YAMASAKI   With the NHL back in full swing, it would be nice simply to forget the lockout ever happened. . .but I can’t. I just can’t move past my indignation towards Gary Bettman for all the damage I feel he caused (he even makes me feel embarrassed I am named “Gary”!)

Sure, Bettman issued an apology, but hordes of fans have wondered whether he was truly sorry. . .me included. It would have helped me a lot if he had accompanied the apology with some sort of tangible display of making amends. A gesture to demonstrate in concrete terms that the apology was not just hollow words. A gesture that would actually cost Bettman something.

And I’ve come up with a plan. Why doesn’t Bettman voluntarily give up his tickets to this year’s Stanley Cup finals (that would cost him something), and make them the object of a league-wide free lottery. Thus, a Bettman sacrifice would provide some benefit to the fans in the form of a game in which all the fans could participate.

In fact, let’s take this a step further. Why doesn’t Bettman also voluntarily relinquish to the winning fan the commissioner’s privilege of handing the Stanley Cup to the winning captain! That would really cost him something. And the sight of a fan, and not Bettman, handing the Cup to the winning captain should provide all fans with a good dose of satisfaction.